So here we are again. Another month, another UFC event. I was genuinely looking forward to watching Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard duke it out this time round but somebody got hurt. Or something.
This leaves us with a semi-interesting mash up of fighters for UFC 130.
Let’s go over the main card.
Quinton Rampage Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
Two guys with wrestling backgrounds.
Overview
Quinton Jackson is undoubtedly the better striker in this match up. That said, his kickboxing is rather standard. It’s not stellar to the point where I see him winning K1, but those punches of his have the ability to knock heads off. Plus he’s a slammer.
Matt Hamill has great wrestling. If you watched his fight with Bisping you’d see that he didn’t set anything up when he took that foul-mouthed Brit down. Hamill just powered through and forced the double leg takedown. His head kick is worth something but this guy isn’t the same caliber when it comes to kicking and punching.
Where do I see this fight going?
Rampage will try hard to sprawl and brawl. He knows his wrestling is more than passable but that it doesn’t match up with Hamill’s ability. Although Jackson is an in-fighter, I don’t expect him to clinch. He’s a better striker overall meaning that the smart game is to stay on the outside and pick shots. Jackson’s also the type of guy that’s gonna try and back Hamill up against the cage. Watch for his left hook uppercut combination.
Hamill is really working on his striking right now. He’ll need to take advantage of the fact that Jackson’s wrestling pales in comparison. If Hamill studied hard I’d expect a mixed bag of mixed martial arts. This means striking with Jackson then taking him down right out of nowhere. Think GSP vs. everybody else. Keeping it unpredictable and sweet. Since Jackson is historically bad off his back, I imagine Hamill will want to stay there and work his above average ground and pound.
To be honest I don’t see a knockout by either man on Saturday. Yes, Jackson is a heavy hitter, but Hamill doesn’t get knocked out easily. I don’t see Hamill head kicking Jackson either. This fight ends with a split split decision.
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
Both are BJJ black belts with good punching power.
Little known fact: Roy Nelson once decisioned Frank Mir in a ground-fighting match up at Grappler’s Quest.
Overview
Anyway. Frank Mir has the edge when it comes to striking. He knocked out Cro Cop with a knee (albeit in a boring fight) and took out Big Nogueira with his left cross. This impresses me. I’ve really appreciated his transformation over time from ground fighting specialist to well rounded MMA fighter.
Roy Nelson however is quite a character. He’s the one fat guy in mixed martial arts that’s doing pretty damn well. He has a good right hand which he showed in his knockouts over Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve. He’s tough. Just look at the time he got punched hard by Junior Dos Santos.
Where do I see this fight going?
I believe both guys would prefer to keep it standing. Frank Mir probably realizes that his striking is better. He has to be confident since he just took out Cro Cop, K1 specialist. I don’t think Mir minds going to the ground since he’s one of the few heavyweights around that’s actually great at submitting people off his back. But after being destroyed by Brock Lesnar while off his back, I don’t think Mir wants to take a chance lest Nelson emulates Lesnar’s strategy. Plus Mir has opted to stand in his last few bouts. On the other hand, I don’t know much about Nelson’s abilities off his back. Mir might want to take it to the ground if in fact Nelson’s guard game is inadequate.
Nelson prefers standing up with fighters. When he fought Dos Santos, someone who clearly had better striking, Nelson was content keeping it up on the feet. He was getting bashed and I don’t remember him trying to take it to the floor. He’s fighting Frank Mir, someone with great ground-fighting ability so I expect some good exchanges from this tough fat guy.
Frank Mir might win by submission, but it’ll probably be after Nelson gets knocked half-out. That way, Mir can grab the already dazed Nelson’s neck and squeeze. But beyond the ridiculous, I also see this going the distance.
Frank Mir by unanimous decision.
Other fights I’m excited about but won’t elaborate on:
Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story
Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch
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