What I Think About UFC 133

Rashad Evans and Tito Ortiz fought ages ago in a boring UFC event. It was a draw. Ortiz couldn’t help but grab the shiny fence which led to a one-point deduction.

OPENING THOUGHTS:
These two fight again at UFC 133.  While Ortiz and Evans may have had similar skill sets back then, I don’t think that’s the case anymore.

I think Tito Ortiz is unimpressive as a fighter. I’m surprised that this guy still has the tools to hang in the age of Jon Jones, Cain Velasquez, Anderson Silva… Maybe it’s the shaved head that makes him worth keeping. I’m telling you, I knew about Tito Ortiz before I knew about MMA. In spite of this, Ortiz doesn’t have anything else unique. He lost four fights consecutively and his win over Ryan Bader felt more lucky than anything.

He’s replacing Phil Davis, a young, extremely lean black guy with a perfect record. Ortiz is nothing like the person he is replacing. He is neither young, athletic or black and that is a serious detriment. It seems odd that after losing fight after fight for five years, Ortiz gets thrown back into contention. It’s all hype anyway.

Rashad Evans has a good chance of taking this fight. His talents aren’t prodigious but he’s always had solid game plans to patch up technical weaknesses he may have. Again, I’m not too impressed with Evans but an objective breakdown of skills would show that this dude is more likely to grab a win at UFC 133.

So let’s do this.

STRIKING:

Rashad Evans is clearly the better striker in this match-up. His jab is surprisingly sneaky and his overhand right knocked Chuck Liddell face down, ass up. Evans has knockout power and if I remember correctly, he took out Sean Salmon with a head kick. Tito Ortiz is not a striker. He takes guys down to the mat and overwhelms them with strikes. Moreover, I’m not sure he can replicate the knock-down punch he used on Ryan Bader.

WRESTLING:

Rashad Evans is a Division I wrestler. On paper he’s far more capable in this area but taking people down and crushing them doesn’t seem to be his forte. Ortiz has college wrestling experience but he lacks the pedigree that Evans has. Ortiz is a ground-and-pound specialist and objectively, he does pretty well if he can drag a guy onto the floor. This is a toss-up. I’d give it to Evans but only marginally.

SUBMISSIONS:

Tito Ortiz. Weren’t expecting that were you?
Ortiz has a fairly underrated ground game. He has submitted people albeit with guillotines and neck cranks, techniques that wrestlers traditionally excel at. I know Evans has a “black belt” in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. But it feels like a happy meal toy. Didn’t Rolles Gracie just give him a black belt out of nowhere? Hmm. I mean it doesn’t seem like Evans can fight off his back. Ortiz is decent in this area. If you watched his fight with Lyoto Machida, he had a fairly active guard. He almost locked in a Triangle/Armbar. You can’t beat The Dragon that way though.

My Prediction:
The safe, boring bet is that Rashad Evans wins by unanimous decision.
However, I hope Tito Ortiz wins by knockout. I’d hope in the 1st round too. Hey if it happened once, why can’t it happen again?

Other fights I’m excited about but won’t elaborate upon:
Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan
Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Enjoy.

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